Agent-Based Modelling for Simulating Peacebuilding: A Feasibility Study

This project is about developing a framework for building agent-based simulation models of conflict-affected areas using Software Engineering (the unified modelling language - UML) for the conceptual modelling process. This framework will allow us to study how individuals in conflict-affected regions change their perceptions towards great powers and their behaviours as a result of international peacebuilding efforts - with a focus on those conducted by China. From a technical perspective we are particularly interested in developing a novel way of considering opinion dynamics as well as polarisation and including environmental psychology within our object oriented social simulation models.

We will test our ideas using a case study approach. The case study is based on empirical data from a study conducted by Hirono (2011). This study investigates the perceptions and behaviours of the Sudanese and South Sudanese government and people towards Chinese immigrants who engage in peacebuilding efforts. It is also of interest to observe how these perceptions modify overtime, as the environment changes. The objective of the simulation is to provide insights into research questions such as: (1) How do people in Sudan and South Sudan perceive China's peacebuilding policy and practices? (2) How do such perceptions and the political/social/economic conditions of Sudan and South Sudan lead to particular behaviours that make up the Sudanese and South Sudanese' relations with China? (3) How and why do such perceptions and behaviours change over time?

The figure below shows schematically the elements of the interactive process of our SimPB framework. These include establishing archetypes, creating general agent templates using UML, creating specific agent objects that are then integrated and cross linked within the simulation environment, running experiments, and analysing results.

 

Project team:

  • Project lead: Peer-Olaf Siebers (UoN CompSci)
  • Conceptualisation and Implementation: Grazziela Figueredo (UoN CompSci)
  • Advice: Miwa Hirono (UoN Politics); Anya Skatova (UoN Psychology); Lisa Siebers (NTU Business)

Project duration:

  • 3 month

Reference:

  • Hirono M (2011). 'China's Charm Offensive and Peacekeeping: The Lessons of Cambodia - What now for Sudan?', International Peacekeeping, vol 18, pp 328-343.

 

Outputs from the Feasibility Study

  • Book chapter: "Developing Agent-Based Simulation Models for Social Systems Engineering Studies: A Novel Framework and its Application to Modelling Peacebuilding Activities" (Springer.2017) [final draft]

  • YouTube video of a SimPB simulation run [url]

 

 

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